목 차 CONTENTS
Ⅰ. 서론················································································································1
1. 연구의 배경 및 목적·················································································1
1-1 연구의 배경 및 필요성 / 1
1-2 연구 목적 / 2
2. 연구의 주요내용 및 접근방법···································································2
Ⅱ. 제주지역 주요 월동채소류 현황분석······················································4
1. 제주농업의 개요·························································································4
2. 제주지역 주요 월동채소류의 수급동향····················································7
2-1 당근 / 7
2-2 양배추 / 10
3. 농산물 수급안정정책 동향······································································13
3-1 정부정책 / 13
3-2 민선8기 제주도정 공약 / 17
Ⅲ. 제주지역 주요 월동채소류 수급전망모형 구축··································20
1. 농산물 수급의 이론적 검토····································································20
1-1 농산물 수급의 이론적 구조 / 20
1-2 월동채소류 시장격리 사업의 이론적 검토 / 22
1-2 월동채소류 시장개방에 대한 이론적 검토 / 23
2. 수급모형의 개요 및 구조········································································24
2-1 수급모형의 개요 / 24
2-2 수급모형의 구조 / 26
2-3 모형의 선정 및 추정방법 / 28
3. 제주지역 월동채소류 수급모형 추정결과··············································28
3-1 거시경제부문 함수모형 추정결과 / 28
3-2 당근 수급모형 추정결과 / 32
3-4 양배추 수급모형 추정결과 / 37
4. 제주지역 월동채소류 수급모형의 평가··················································42
4-1 모형의 예측력 검정방법 / 42
4-2 모형의 예측력 검정결과 / 43
Ⅳ. 제주지역 주요 월동채소류 수급전망 결과··········································44
1. 분석의 제가정 및 시나리오 구성···························································44
1-1 거시경제변수 가정 / 44
1-2 정책 시뮬레이션 시나리오 구성 / 45
2. 품목별 수급전망 결과·············································································46
2-1 당근 및 양배추의 수급전망(Base Line) / 46
2-2 당근 및 양배추의 정책 시뮬레이션 수급전망 / 49
Ⅴ. 결론 및 정책제언······················································································52
1. 결론···········································································································52
2. 정책제언····································································································54
참고문헌··············································································································59
Abstract ·············································································································6